Estimation of Uncertainty of Wind Energy Predictions

With Application to Weather Routing and Wind Power Generation
 Buch
Sofort lieferbar | Lieferzeit:3-5 Tage I
ISBN-13:
9783631718858
Einband:
Buch
Erscheinungsdatum:
03.03.2017
Seiten:
123
Autor:
David Zastrau
Gewicht:
283 g
Format:
216x153x15 mm
Serie:
9, Maritime Logistik / Maritime Logistics
Sprache:
Englisch
Beschreibung:

Uncertainty in Wind Power Generation and Weather Routing - Offshore Wind Power Logistics - Weather Routing - Ship Propulsion Energy - Wind Propulsion Systems - Statistical Pattern matching - Uncertainty in Weather Predictions - Estimation of Prediction Uncertainty - Prediction Intervals - Ensemble Prediction Systems - Quantile Regression - Local Energy Distribution Moments
Currently, a new generation of fuel-efficient ships, which use wind force in addition to conventional propulsion technology, is being developed. This study describes a mathematical method for a probabilistic estimate of the wind propulsion force on a ship route. The method is based on quantile regression, which makes it suitable for various ship routes with variable weather conditions. Furthermore, the author takes different macro weather situations into account for the calculation of the statistical distributions. He validates the results for a multi-purpose carrier, a ship route in the North Atlantic Ocean and archived weather forecasts. It showed that the wind force can be estimated more accurately if the macro weather situation is taken into account properly.